"The Coincidence Test"

TheRunningGirlTheRunningGirl Posts: 777
edited January 1970 in TIAI
Because it is play time and the $999 REwarD will not be won... I am going to try my luck at The Coincidence Test...
If I win, I will have a champagne (Rose only) toast in celebration and commiseration for not having played the lottery on the same day.
If I lose, I will give £111 to a charity to be chosen by TS.

Date: 16th September 2010 (NY Stock exchange closing time)

Dow = .11; Nasdaq = .08; S&P 500 = .89 making a 6 digits number of 110889

With L.O.V.E

The Coincidence Test

If nobody is able to collect the $999 reward: the only way out at that point will be to claim that a one-in-a-million chance actually happened. However, while it’s fairly easy to merely claim that it was all coincidence, it is much harder to demonstrate it. This is why I have created “the coincidence test”—so that people can easily see whether the one-in-a-million coincidence claim is realistic or not.

First of all, to help put things in perspective, if the odds of something happening by coincidence are 1 chance in only 2: there is still a 50% chance that it will not happen by coincidence. And if it’s 1 chance in 10: there is a 90% chance that it will not happen by coincidence. If it’s 1 chance in 100: there’s a 99% chance that it won’t happen by coincidence. 1 chance in 1,000 is 99.9% that it won’t happen by coincidence. And finally 1 chance in 1,000 times 1,000 (one in a million)—is 99.9999% chance that it would NOT happen by coincidence!!!!!!!!!

Saying that the MJ “death” timing and numerology all happened by coincidence would be like playing Russian roulette with 999,999 bullets, and one blank {http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_roulette}. Although there is one big difference: Russian roulette only puts one person’s life in danger; but with NWO and end of the world, millions of lives are in danger!

For those who want to play “the coincidence test”: it’s quite similar to a lottery, except fortunately it won’t cost money like gambling and the lottery (and also nobody will win money). I saw a bumper sticker once that said, “Lottery: a tax on people who failed math class.”

Anyway, if you want to try the coincidence test: start a thread (in the TIAI subforum) titled: “The Coincidence Test”. Then take a guess at what the last two digits (right of the decimal) will be in the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, once the stock market closes for the day {see <!-- m -->http://finance.yahoo.com/<!-- m -->}. You must state your guess at least 24 hours in advance; and also identify which date your guess applies to (use the date based upon a time zone in the USA); the digits remain in view for more than 12 hours after the market closes, so there is plenty of time to see if your guess was right (they are also recorded permanently).

Make sure you identify which two digits go with Dow, and which ones go with Nasdaq, and which ones with S&P 500. For example: Dow = .77; Nasdaq = .79; S&P 500 = .99; this will make a six-digit number (777,999), which has a one chance in a million of being correct (000,000 to 999,999). These stock market decimal numbers are quite random, and nobody will be able to know them 24 hours in advance (or control them); so if someone gets all six digits correct, then that will be a one-in-a-million coincidence!

Now we must not forget the aspect of opportunities, when we are calculating odds of a coincidence. For this to actually happen as a one-in-a-million coincidence: it has to be the very first person who gets the six numbers correct. Because the second person will be two-in-a-million, and the third will be three-in-a-million, etc.

If one hundred guesses are made, that would be a one-in-ten-thousand chance; because although though the odds are one in a million, the opportunities are one hundred (so 1,000,000 divided by 100 = 10,000). Nevertheless, if hundreds or even thousands of “coincidence test” guesses are made—it is still very unlikely that anyone will get it right!

Comments

  • Results for the 16th September 2010

    Dow = .83; Nasdaq = .25; S&P 500 = .66 making a 6 digits number of 832566

    Conclusion... I lost! <!-- s:( -->:(<!-- s:( -->

    The Champagne remains safely in the fridge for BAMSDAY and £111 is unconditionally cast aside to go to a charity of TS choice and on your command TS, it will go. My word you have.

    THANK YOU for this journey in the twilight zone between Fiction and Reality... <!-- s8-) -->8-)<!-- s8-) -->

    With L.O.V.E <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->
  • <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->
  • <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) --> <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) --> - God Bless you TS!

    £111 has gone to Hanna's Orphanage in Ethiopia - Hanna's Orphanage is a great example of how people can make a difference in this World if they really want to. It is sooooo... important to embed any charitable efforts into the communities and give unfortunate children a loving environment to grow and develop in!
    About the orphanage
    Hanna's Orphans' Home is an orphanage based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and cares for just under 200 children. The majority of the children have lost both parents to HIV and Aids, but some have living parents who are just too sick to care for them.

    Run by an Ethiopian woman called Hanna Teshome, the orphanage is spread over three main sites - in Wollo Seffer, in Shiro Meda and one just outside of Addis Ababa. There are also children's homes in Jimma and Harar.

    Hanna Teshome
    Hanna Teshome is the Ethiopian woman who founded Hanna Orphans Home in 1994 after being asked to look after Samson, a baby orphaned by HIV. Since then, the orphanage has grown to care for 215 children and employ over 20 members of staff, but Hanna is still the driving force behind everything that happens.

    Most of her day is spent at the Wollo Seffer site, or out meeting people who may be able to provide funding for the orphanage. She tries to visit the Shiro Meda site once a week, and to visit the children's homes in Jimma and Harar every other month – although this isn't always possible.

    Hanna is very involved in the children's lives; they all call her 'a-tetay' which roughly means 'big sister'. She has devoted her life to running the orphanage - something that her husband and three children can attest to! She believes passionately that children need stability, love and opportunity as well as the day-to-day things such as food, shelter and clothes. She works hard to make sure that Hanna Orphans Home can provide that for as many children as possible.
    Hanna-Teshome.jpg

    Wollo Seffer
    In Wollo Seffer the children live in small groups of about five or six. They learn to cook for themselves, keep a house and study; all the children go to a local school or are taught at the orphanage. There is also a small library, a study room, a play area and a kitchen.

    Shiro Meda
    In Shiro Meda a group of younger children live in a house donated by an Ethiopian woman who now lives in America. The children have three women who live with them - one who cooks, one who cleans and one who is a 'mother' to them. She provides the hugs! Two men also help out although they don't live on site. One works as a handyman, doing miraculous things with corrugated iron, and the other comes in to offer religious education to the children as well as helping them with their studies.

    mainpic4.jpg

    It's very important to Hanna - and us - that the orphanage is part of the surrounding community. This means the children grow up as active members of society and not just children who are 'different' and tucked away in an institution.

    It also means that the children in the surrounding neighbourhoods can benefit from the orphanage's facilities and resources. These children, although still living with their parents, often can't afford to go to school and even if they can, they have no place to study at home.

    Girls, especially, will often end up helping their mother cook and clean instead of studying, so in Wollo Seffer the library and study area are open to the neighbourhood children. Hanna also makes sure any spare clothes are passed out to those who need them.

    Many of the children in the orphanage are victims of sexual abuse, something that is rarely talked about or confronted in Ethiopia (or in other places in the world!), and Hanna works hard to make sure all the children know their rights and know who to go to for help. She recently went into the school and did a 'sex education' class, focussing on how the young people can protect themselves and learn how to say no.

    Whilst I have always given to charity over the years, it is only through this last year or so that my eyes have really started to see the World for what it is and I have started to feel the pains and injustice of it all... and it is Michael I need to thank for this.

    With L.O.V.E
  • Through your blessings, we have all been blessed. Thank you for sharing about Hanna. What a beautiful person she is!
    Have a wonderful day and know you have made a difference!

    Blessings Always
  • trublutrublu Posts: 1,011
    Wow you truly are an inspiration TheRunningGirl!
    <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->
  • Through your blessings, we have all been blessed. Thank you for sharing about Hanna. What a beautiful person she is!
    Have a wonderful day and know you have made a difference!

    Blessings Always
    Wow you truly are an inspiration TheRunningGirl!
    <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->

    <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) --> <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) --> <!-- s:oops: -->:oops:<!-- s:oops: -->

    Thank you so much... Hanna is an amazing person and Michael is such a great inspiration!

    With L.O.V.E
  • I totally agree, she is. She and Michael create awareness and inspire us. I was brought up with charities and they are a part of my life now. I hope my kids will be inspired too, but that's their own choice of course.

    It's all for L.O.V.E.
  • Wow, looks like TS strated to redirect AGAIN <!-- s:D -->:D<!-- s:D -->
    So, everyone, let's start giving
    Or continue giving
  • EXPERT VIEWS: Is the Sahel food crisis over?
    21 Sep 2010 11:45:00 GMT

    Written by: George Fominyen
    DAKAR (AlertNet) - A massive aid operation in West Africa's semi-arid Sahel region has prevented a severe food crisis from sliding into a catastrophe but the hunger problem is far from over, aid agencies say.
    Ten million people across the Sahel have been experiencing food shortages after drought destroyed crops and slashed food production in 2009.
    Aid groups say there is hope for a better harvest this year due to improved rainfall, but warn the severity of the crisis will leave scars that require an equally robust disaster recovery effort.
    AlertNet interviewed three experts on various aspects of the crisis -- Cyprien Fabre, head of the European Commission's humanitarian aid and civil protection department (ECHO) in West Africa, Philippe Conraud, regional humanitarian manager for Oxfam GB in West Africa and Claude Jibidar, the deputy regional director of the U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) in West Africa
    Is the food crisis in the eastern Sahel over?
    Cyprien Fabre: It (the food crisis) is certainly not over - but the worst has been averted thanks to the big response in food and nutrition assistance that is underway and there are also forecasts for a good harvest in October and November because the rainfall has been good in most of the Sahel...
    Claude Jibidar: The worst seems to have been averted in Niger, thanks to efforts by the government and its partners... Food prices are now declining in the region and livestock prices are improving. The October harvest will also have a beneficial effect on household food security. However, the needs for recovery remain high, especially for the most vulnerable who have lost their livelihoods during the 2010 food crisis...
    Philippe Conraud: We are still at the very beginning of the end and there are still needs to be met. We are still doing food distributions in Chad, Mali and Niger - either by direct food aid or through cash transfers... We can't say the crisis is over, maybe that would be the case in a few months' time. We have however averted the worst of it ... the situation could have been worse if we (humanitarian community) did not act so promptly and in such a big way although it hasn't been perfect or sufficient.
    Up until early August humanitarian groups were still appealing for help from donors. What's your assessment of the response from aid groups and donors and how does that compare to the last crisis in 2005?
    Cyprien Fabre: The response was better than 2005 and there is no doubt about that. I can't talk for other donors but at ECHO we were quick to realise that the situation would be very bad and we were among the first to warn even the NGOs that something serious was going to happen... We allocated 84 million euros this year -- 84 for this crisis (on the emergency side) -- and 128 million euros from the European Commission side alone (for recovery)
    Philippe Conraud: I think the response this year has been better than that of 2005. It was bigger in terms of volume, and number of countries concerned and some donors responded rapidly and provided huge funds... However, we have not been able to solve all problems, respond to all needs in all parts of the (Sahel) region because some of the big donor nations did not provide funding as we had hoped and so the humanitarian community as a whole didn't get the funding we were expecting. There are things to improve ahead of the next crisis, because there will be another crisis in the years to come.
    Claude Jibidar: In July, WFP was able to purchase commodities in the region and bring them to Niger or Chad for lean season distributions. Our lead times were fairly short. That means that appeals two months ago were meant to address the very real prospect of pipeline breaks in our relief operations. Thankfully, donors responded to those appeals and new advanced funding mechanisms which WFP has put in place have enabled purchases before donor money was availed. In other circumstances, it would have been impossible to purchase and deliver the required quantities of food on time.
    What other factors contributed to averting a bigger crisis and how effective were the early warning systems?
    Cyprien Fabre: The key difference is that we knew from the beginning through the early warning systems, indicating in October, that the harvest was not going to be good. The use of cash vouchers and cash hand-outs instead of food distribution that would have disrupted the markets was also a major reason for success this year because it was very much a crisis of access to food as much as one of lack of food.
    Philippe Conraud: The humanitarian community was better informed and organised with more human resources on the ground than in 2005, all of which enabled us to be reactive. But it is essential to improve early warning systems and I would even go further to say we need "early alarming". Early warning allows us to have indicators of an imminent crisis beforehand but ... if we had been more 'alarming' in November, December 2009 or the early parts of this year it would have enabled us to be more pushy about obtaining the necessary funds earlier than we did.
    Claude Jibidar: Luckily, in 2010, regional food markets were working, bringing surpluses from other parts of West Africa to Niger. In this context WFP was able to carry out its largest regional procurement operation ever, bringing surpluses from coastal countries to the Sahel, leading to efficiencies in terms of time and cost. WFP purchased some 86,000 tonnes of food in West Africa. Seventy percent of the food distributed in the eastern Sahel comes from West Africa.
    While aid groups were vocal about humanitarian needs in Niger, they seemed less vocal about Chad where about 2 million people faced hunger. Why is that?
    Cyprien Fabre: The NGO and media lobby was strong in Niger but it wasn't the same for Chad although the gravity of the situation is the same. We have very few partners working in the area of food and nutrition in the parts where the food crisis was serious in Chad but in Niger there partners who have been there since 2005 and this made a difference in the response.
    Philippe Conraud: The problem with Chad is that most of the humanitarian groups are based in the east and south where there are refugees and internally displaced persons, and secondly there wasn't an adequate early warning system to get the groups to switch focus and move in good time into the west and centre of the country. It is still insufficient at the moment.
    Claude Jibidar: (The) implementing capacity in the Chadian Sahel is weak and must be strengthened. Food insecurity and malnutrition in the Chadian Sahel are chronically high, and the area was hard hit by the 2010 crisis. The Chad government, UN agencies and NGOs and must allocate additional resources to programmes in that very deprived area.
    What are the challenges now for the Sahel? Is another crisis likely?
    Cyprien Fabre: At ECHO, we remain very concerned and are ready to finance some recovery programmes in Burkina Faso and Niger for people who are coming out of this crisis while in Chad and northern Nigeria we still need to pay more attention to the nutrition situation of children and the general population because these are similar to Niger but we have less attention from the outside world. These people need assistance from humanitarian actors, but it is critical to have support from governments and development donors because with climate change and the advance of the desert in this part of Africa we are going to be having such crisis every two years and it needs some long-term response.
    Philippe Conraud: It would be a tragedy if donors were to disengage from the Sahel on the grounds that there is a good harvest on the horizon. Many poor families have suffered extremely from this 2010 food crisis and though they have survived and the death rates have not been catastrophic, the populations in the Sahel are in a far worse condition today than they were before the crisis. The main concern for us now is to help them return to at least their situations before the crisis, because there will be another crisis in the years to come.
    Claude Jibidar: While we can say that the bulk of the crisis is behind us, nutrition needs remain very high, especially for children and women and a continuous effort by all stakeholders...is still required to ensure the status of the most at-risk does not deteriorate further but also that the ones who have lost their livelihoods can recover and be in a position to survive the annual lean season in 2011...Both acute and chronic malnutrition rates have been and remain stubbornly high in the Sahel; and the projection of a good harvest will not immediately solve the problem of undernourished children, which is linked to many different root causes, including food insecurity, lack of access to water and sanitation, and illness.

    <!-- m -->http://www.alertnet.org/db/an_art/58388 ... 4506-1.htm<!-- m -->

    Don’t you wanna scream when you read news like this? <!-- s:( -->:(<!-- s:( --> OK massive aid operations prevented a severe catastrophe, but by far we’re not there yet! News like this is essential for all of us, because we must know that after donating, a food crisis as in Haïti, Somalia, Pakistan and Sahel isn’t solved in a sec. While collecting donations for a well-known child aid organization from door-to-door, I frequently hear remarks like “hm, again? I already donated a year ago”. Although, I appreciate each and every donation, I want to emphasize the necessity of giving continuously, if possible.

    ‘Think about the generations and to say we want to make it a better
    world for our children and our children's children. So that they know
    it's a better world for them; and think if they can make it a better
    place.’- Heal The World – Michael Jackson

    L.O.V.E.
  • Hello RunningGirl!

    You have truly inspired me to figure a way to help. I have no income at all right now. I gave up my teaching position last year- art history to kids. So- thinking outside the box- I have decided to put together a plan to collect donations of art supplies for children. I will look into which of Michael's charities might benefit from these....and let you know about it.

    One of the things I think is so important for a child, is to learn how to express him or her self. Children are naturally creative. However, I have met kids that are afraid to pick up a crayon and draw a flower. They are afraid because they fear that flower will not be, "perfect". Sadly, this is mostly a result of parents saying they are not good enough. It breaks my heart to see a child afraid to draw. When I taught my program, I started the kids with Picasso. If they can see that art is more about expression and less about perfection....they have it made. Who better than Mr. Picasso....they love to see his work. By the year's end, they were always brimming with confidence, ready to draw anything and everything.

    Even though my contribution might pale financially, it's still filled with love. Thank you RunningGirl for the inspiration. Thank you TS for lighting the flame within us. And finally, thank you forum for all the love here.
    We are truly one on this rock called Earth. Let's make that difference.

    With many blessings to all!
    Wishingstar
  • TheRunningGirl, God bless you. God bless you.
  • Don’t you wanna scream when you read news like this? OK massive aid operations prevented a severe catastrophe, but by far we’re not there yet! News like this is essential for all of us, because we must know that after donating, a food crisis as in Haïti, Somalia, Pakistan and Sahel isn’t solved in a sec. While collecting donations for a well-known child aid organization from door-to-door, I frequently hear remarks like “hm, again? I already donated a year ago”. Although, I appreciate each and every donation, I want to emphasize the necessity of giving continuously, if possible.

    ‘Think about the generations and to say we want to make it a better
    world for our children and our children's children. So that they know
    it's a better world for them; and think if they can make it a better
    place.’- Heal The World – Michael Jackson

    L.O.V.E.

    @everlastinglove_MJ, you are amazing. There is so much to do to make this World a better place... and you are very right it takes continuous efforts because there is so much help needed everywhere! It is about doing what we can when we can and influencing others to make change where we can.
    Hello RunningGirl!

    You have truly inspired me to figure a way to help. I have no income at all right now. I gave up my teaching position last year- art history to kids. So- thinking outside the box- I have decided to put together a plan to collect donations of art supplies for children. I will look into which of Michael's charities might benefit from these....and let you know about it.

    Hello! Wishingstar - Thank you, we all have different ways we can help, depending on our circumstances and skills and it all makes a difference. Everything starts with an idea and yours is a fantastic one.

    Thank you The Little Mermaid

    Hanna is the one who went all the way to create a loving home for deprived children and Michael is pure inspiration. (So are you TS <!-- s;) -->;)<!-- s;) --> )

    With Love and Blessings to All <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->
  • $111 has gone to Hanna's Orphanage in Ethiopia - Hanna's Orphanage is a great example of how people can make a difference in this World if they really want to. It is sooooo... important to embed any charitable efforts into the communities and give unfortunate children a loving environment to grow and develop in!

    Hello TheRunningGirl, thank you, bless you and your charitable efforts and keep the faith & thank you TS.

    L.O.V.E.
  • PureLovePureLove Posts: 5,891
    This is so beautiful. God bless you RunningGirl. Why don't we all together do some charity like this? As the Army of L.O.V.E, I believe that we can make some donations. It doesn't matter how much we donate but it matters we do something good. How about deciding for a place to donate and all of us do it?
  • This is so beautiful. God bless you RunningGirl. Why don't we all together do some charity like this? As the Army of L.O.V.E, I believe that we can make some donations. It doesn't matter how much we donate but it matters we do something good. How about deciding for a place to donate and all of us do it?

    Hello! PureLove - Thank you. Great idea! I think that maybe "adopting" an orphanage on each continent could be a good way to get started, it has the advantage to be a focussed effort and there may be "some of us" "nearby who can provide the "occasional" hands on support as well. There is so much that we can do, we all have different means and skills but all is relevant.
    What do you think?

    With L.O.V.E
  • This is so beautiful. God bless you RunningGirl. Why don't we all together do some charity like this? As the Army of L.O.V.E, I believe that we can make some donations. It doesn't matter how much we donate but it matters we do something good. How about deciding for a place to donate and all of us do it?

    Hello! PureLove - Thank you. Great idea! I think that maybe "adopting" an orphanage on each continent could be a good way to get started, it has the advantage to be a focussed effort and there may be "some of us" "nearby who can provide the "occasional" hands on support as well. There is so much that we can do, we all have different means and skills but all is relevant.
    What do you think?

    With L.O.V.E

    There are 7 continents ....... <!-- s;) -->;)<!-- s;) -->
  • This is so beautiful. God bless you RunningGirl. Why don't we all together do some charity like this? As the Army of L.O.V.E, I believe that we can make some donations. It doesn't matter how much we donate but it matters we do something good. How about deciding for a place to donate and all of us do it?

    Hello! PureLove - Thank you. Great idea! I think that maybe "adopting" an orphanage on each continent could be a good way to get started, it has the advantage to be a focussed effort and there may be "some of us" "nearby who can provide the "occasional" hands on support as well. There is so much that we can do, we all have different means and skills but all is relevant.
    What do you think?

    With L.O.V.E

    There are 7 continents ....... <!-- s;) -->;)<!-- s;) -->

    Even better! Lets make it seven then! <!-- s;) -->;)<!-- s;) -->

    With L.O.V.E
  • PureLovePureLove Posts: 5,891
    I thought that we could start some charity work via internet and all together we can make some donations. Let's pick an orphanage from 1 of the continents and do the same in all continents. How about that? <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->
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