"$999 Claim, By ~Souza~"
Because some people accuse me of blindly following TS without questioning, I decided to take the challenge and calculate the chance of coincidence. I can see the chance is astronomical small without having to calculate, but maybe others are not that good with math, so here it's all calculated so you can see why I am certain it's not all coincidence. The person that gets this chance under 1 in a million, will receive an additional $999 from me. I wish you good luck! <!-- s
--><!-- s --> $999 Reward!!!
On the one year anniversary of 9-9-09, this is a very fitting time to offer this $999 reward. The reward will go to the first person who can show mathematically and statistically, that there is one chance in any number less than a million (1 chance in 999,999 or 1 chance in 500,000, etc), that all the MJ numerology listed in step 3 below happened by chance.
Anyone can accept this offer, but they must do each of the following 5 steps.
Step 1: Carefully read each of the following three times: all of this post, and TIAI Updates #4b, #4c, #5a, #5d, #6 (especially #6-8 & #6-9).
Step 2: Start a post (in the TIAI subforum) titled: “$999 Claim, By John Doe [don’t use this name, use your own username]”. Include in your post steps 3 and 4, below; also, any discussion regarding step 5 should be done in this same thread.
Step 3: Show your calculations for each separate numerology (a. to l.) happening by chance {for an example, see the 12:21 phone call time, <!-- l -->viewtopic.php?f=72&t=9994<!-- l -->}.
Be sure to include:
a. The 911 call was in the first few seconds of 12:21
b. 12:21 to 2:26 is 2 hours and 5 minutes on June 25; 2 + 5 = 7
c. 1,221 + 226 = 1447; 1 + 4 + 4 + 7 = 16; 1 + 6 = 7
d. Memorial 7th day of 7th month, 7 years after will (and full moon)
e. 77 days from “death” to 9-9-09
f. 7 days from “burial” to 9-9-09 (and almost full moon)
g. THIS IS IT vowels = 999
h. HIS (HIStory and THIS IS IT) backwards = 1998
i. 1998 autograph; 1998 - 666 = 1332 / 4 = 333 + 666 = 999
j. 777 + 999 = 1776
k. All of these numbers (333, 666, 777, 999, 1221, 1776, 1998) are divisible by 111
l. 8 + 16 + 1977 = 2001; 6 + 25 + 2009 = 2040 (space intros for Elvis and MJ)
Step 4: Show your calculations for the combination of all these numerologies happening by chance. Your answer here at step 4 must be 1 chance in 999,999 or less (because one chance in a million or more does not qualify for the reward).
Step 5: Allow me to question/challenge your calculations.
If you can defend your calculations and statistics by answering my questions/challenges: then PM your mailing address to me, and I will send you $999 (U.S. dollars) via Western Union!
a. The 911 call was in the first few seconds of 12:21
At this time we didn't hear anything yet, the 911 call started the hoax. If he planned on doing the hoax on June 25 and the time is just a coincidence, we must keep in mind the following:
June 25 had 24 hours. 24 hours are 1,440 minutes which equals 86,400 seconds. The chance the 911 call was placed at exactly 12:21:04 is therefore 1 in 86,400. But the seconds are not planned, which leaves us to 1 chance in 1,440. But we need to devide that in 2, because the clock will show us 12:21 (which is the 'coincidence' here) twice every day. so we write down for our final calculation: 1/720. Let's go on...
b. 12:21 to 2:26 is 2 hours and 5 minutes on June 25; 2 + 5 = 7
Still keeping in mind that he planned his death on June 25, there are 11 hours and 39 minutes left, which equals 699 minutes. That means that it is a chance of 1 in 699. 2:26 is chosen iMO because February 26 was the date that Thriller became #1, but let's forget about that. He also could have chosen 0 hours and 7 minutes, 1 hour and 6 minutes, 3 hours and 4 minutes, 4 hours and 3 minutes 5 hours and 2 minutes, 6 hours and 1 minute and 7 hours and 0 minutes. In that case I am not taking into account the likeliness of dying withing a certain amount of time after you had a cardiac arrest. That means that after 12:21 there were 8 times of death that would reduce to 7. So the chance that the hour and minute would make 7 is 8/699.
c. 1,221 + 226 = 1447; 1 + 4 + 4 + 7 = 16; 1 + 6 = 7
This one is quite simple, the chance that a 4 digit number reduces to 7 is 1 in 9 (it can never reduce to 0). But here we have the 2:26 back. Let's see what happens if we use the other 7 possible times of death and add them to 1,221, to make sure my calculation above (point b) is correct and that 2:26 as a number should not make a difference, or that I need to chance 8/699.
1,221 + 1,228 (12:28 is 0 hours and 7 minutes after 12:21) = 2,449. 2+4+4+9=19, 1+9=10, 1+0=1
1,221 + 127 (1:27 is 1 hour and 6 minutes after 12:21) = 1,348. 1+3+4+8=16, 1+6=7
1,221 + 325 (3:25 is 3 hours and 4 minutes after 12:21) = 1,546. 1+5+4+6=16, 1+6=7
1,221 + 424 (4:24 is 4 hours and 3 minutes after 12:21) = 1,645. 1+6+4+5=16, 1+6=7
1,221 + 523 (5:23 is 5 hours and 2 minutes after 12:21) = 1,744. 1+7+4+4=16, 1+6=7
1,221 + 622 (6:22 is 6 hours and 1 minutes after 12:21) = 1,843. 1+8+4+3=16, 1+6=7
1,221 + 721 (7:21 is 7 hours and 0 minutes after 12:21) = 1,942. 1+9+4+2=16, 1+6=7
So conclusion is that besides 2:26, 6 other times would make 77. All besides 7 minutes after 12:21. That does mean my former calculation under point b needs to be changed to 7/699.
d. Memorial 7th day of 7th month, 7 years after will (and full moon)
The chance that this is 777 is as follows:
chance that it is the 7th day: 1/31 (July has 31 days)
Chance that it is the 7th month: 1/12 (a year has 12 months)
chance that it is 7 years after 2002 will is impossible to calculate, because there are endless years after 2002. But to calculate with something, let's reduce the number of years to 7, which makes it more likely to be 7 years. Of course we all know that's not true, but I don't want to calculate with big numbers so people can say later that I cheated. So 1/7.
Chance that it is a full moon: 1/27 (It takes roughly 27 days for the moon to travel around the earth)
Chance that this is all happening at once: 1/31 x 1/12 x 1/7 x 1/27 = 1/70,308
e. 77 days from “death” to 9-9-09
Again, there are endless days before 9/9, but let's focus on the year he chose to 'die': 2009. September 9 is the 252nd day of the year, that means that there are 251 other days before 9/9 in 2009. The chance that the day of death is 77 to 9/9 is therefore 1/251. Because we can calculate with inclusive reckoning, we should again divide this by 2, because June 24 would be 77 days from 9/9 as well, without inclusive reckoning. So we note for our calculation a chance of 2/251
f. 7 days from “burial” to 9-9-09 (and almost full moon)
Between 'death' and 9-9-09 are 75 possible burial dates (77 days -/- June 25 itself and -/- 9/9 itself) So the chance that the burial is 7 days to 9-9-09 is 1/75. But not really, because again we should take inclusive reckoning into account, which makes the chance 2/75.
g. THIS IS IT vowels = 999
There are 3 vowels in This Is It, all the exsisting vowels in the alfabet are a, e, i, o, u & y, so 6 in total. The chance that all 3 vowels in This Is Is are one and the same (i) is therefore 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/216. In this scenario I am not looking at all at sentences that are possible, or combinations of letters to make a sentence, because my math doesn't reach that far and the chance would only become smaller. So in this case the chance that all 3 vowels in a sentence with 3 vowels in total are one and the same is 1/216.
h. HIS (HIStory and THIS IS IT) backwards = 1998
Mike chose himself to have an album/tour name like this, with 3 letters in CAPS. Again this is impossible form me to calculate because my brain is frying already, but let's say he could have chosen any 3 letters in caps in any kind of title and that this is just a coincidence.
Let's see first which combinations would make 1998:
HIS (backwards) 8-9-19
SIH 19-9-8
HIIA (backwards) 8-9-9-1
AIIH 1-9-9-8
4 different combinations are possible, although as you can see only one makes sense but I am only looking at chances here and not if words make sense, but to make the chance as likely as possible, let's calculate with the 3-letter-words.
The chance he choses 3 letters (consonant - vowel - consonant) that makes 1998 either forward or backwards:
First letter is a consonant and makes 19 or 8: 2/20 (20 consonants in total, only the H and S qualify)
Second letter is a vowel and makes 9: 1/6 (6 vowels in total, only the I makes 9)
First letter is a consonant and makes 19 or 8: 2/20 (20 consonants in total, only the H and S qualify)
So the chance that those 3 letters combined make 1998 is 2/20 x 1/6 x 2/20 = 4/2400 which reduces to 1/600.
i. 1998 autograph; 1998 - 666 = 1332 / 4 = 333 + 666 = 999
The chance that a 4-digit number makes 999 when you calculate with this formula is 1/10,000 (0000-9,999) because 1998 is the only one that makes 999 with this formula. Try it with every 4-digit number yourself. But because people might object and say that 0000 is simply nothing and 0009 and 0999 for example would reduce to 9 and 999 and is not really a 4-digit number, let's say the chance is 1/9,000 (1,000-9,999).
j. 777 + 999 = 1776
The chance that 777 + 999 makes 1,776 is simply 1, but that's not the point. In the hoax we are constantly reminded or 3-digit numbers like 111, 333 etc. and both 777 and 999 used repeatedly in relation to TII. But let's see what the chances are that 2 3-digit numbers (3 the same numbers) makes 1,776. The only possibility is 888+888 (reminds me of Elvis...)
All the other 3-digit numbers with 3 the same numbers are: 111, 222, 333, 444, 555 and 666. This means that there are 81 different combinations possible (9x9). Only 3 combinations make 1776 (777+999, 888+888 & 999+777). So the chance that a combination would make 1776 is 3/81.
k. All of these numbers (333, 666, 777, 999, 1221, 1776, 1998) are divisible by 111
The duration time of the movie is 111 minutes, the other numbers are constantly repeating throughout the hoax. Let's say (to make the chance as likely as possible again) that 1,998 is the last number, that there are no other numbers after 1,998. What are the chances that the 7 numbers most dominant in the hoax are all divisible by 111? That would be 1,998 to the power 7 = Approx. 1/127,106,684,000,000,000,000,000 (I might have missed one or two 0's...)
l. 8 + 16 + 1977 = 2001; 6 + 25 + 2009 = 2040 (space intros for Elvis and MJ)
This is a hard one. I will have to calculate myself because I seriously can't remember the formula for this. Let's start with Elvis. What is the chance that Elvis would 'die' on a date that equals his reference to 2001 during his last concerts? For that I have checked the statistics for the avarage average life expectancy for men.
"In the U.S., average life expectancy at birth is about 79 years for women and about 72 years for men." <!-- m -->http://www.news.harvard.edu/gazette/199 ... veLon.html<!-- m -->
So according to this Elvis had a life expectancy of 72 years from 1/8/1935 on. There are 26,663 days in between his birth date (1/8/1935) and his expected day of death (1/8/2008) <!-- m -->http://www.timeanddate.com/date/duratio ... =1&y2=2008<!-- m -->. But the chance his death date would reduce to 2001 with this formula (month+date+year) is not 1/26,663, because there are more dates that make 2001. We also need to reduce the amount of days, because he was clearly not dead yet when he sang it. Let's see how many days are in between June 26, 1977 (date of his last concert) and his expected death date (1/8/2008). There are 11,153 days in between. <!-- m -->http://www.timeanddate.com/date/duratio ... =1&y2=2008<!-- m -->
So we already reduced it to 1/11,153. But all dates after 1/1/1999 won't work, because this is the last date that makes 2001, all other dates will be higher. So we can reduce it to 1/7,859 <!-- m -->http://www.timeanddate.com/date/duratio ... =1&y2=1999<!-- m -->
Here is where my math education is failing me, because I can't remember how I can find out in a quick formula to see what other dates would make 2001, so I need to do it like this, starting at June 26, 1977:
1977
2001 - 1977 = 24. Dates that make 24 after June 26, 1977 are 7/17, 8/16, 9/15, 10/14, 11/13 and 12/12. So 1977 had 6 dates that reduced to 2001.
1978
2001 - 1978 = 23. Dates that make 23 in 1978 are 1/22, 2/21, 3/20, 4/19, 5/18, 6/17, 7/16, 8/15, 9/14, 10/13, 11/12 and 12/11. So 1978 had 12 dates that reduced to 2001. This will keep this way from 1979 to 1988, because 2001 -/- one of those dates makes 13 (2001-1988) or more, which means all months have a possible date, with 12/1/1988 being the last date in December. After that each year will loose a date, for example 2001-1989=12, so 12/1 is not possible anymore, and 2001-1990=11, which means in that year both November and December have no possible date. So that means:
1979: 12 dates
1980: 12 dates
1981: 12 dates
1982: 12 dates
1983: 12 dates
1984: 12 dates
1985: 12 dates
1986: 12 dates
1987: 12 dates
1988: 12 dates
1989: 11 dates
1990: 10 dates
1991: 9 dates
1992: 8 dates
1993: 7 dates
1994: 6 dates
1995: 5 dates
1996: 4 dates
1997: 3 dates
1998: 2 dates
1999: 1 date
That means that in total there were 204 dates between June 26, 1977 and January 1, 1999. So that means that the chance that Elvis would coincidentally die on a date that would make 2001 with the formula that is used, is 204/7,859
Same calculation for Mike, with October 15, 1997 being the starting date (last HIStory gig) and August 29, 2040 being the end date (expected death).
1997
2040 - 1997 = 43. Dates that make 43 after October 15, 1997? Just one: 12/31.
1998
2040 - 1998 = 42. Dates that make 42 in 1998 is only 12/30, because 11/31 doesn't exsist.
1999
2040 - 1999 = 41. Dates that make 41 in 1999 are 12/29 and 11/30, 2 Dates
2000
2040 - 2000 = 40. Dates: 12/28, 11/29 & 10/30. 3 Dates
2001
2040 - 2001 = 39. Dates: 12/27, 11/28, 10/29 & 9/30. 4 Dates
2002
2040 - 2002 = 38. Dates: 12/26, 11/27, 10/28, 9/29, 8/30. 5 Dates
Every year a date will be added. In 2008 Februari should be added, but since Februari only had 29 days in 2008, and 2040-2008=32, February doesn't have a possible date in 2008, but January is added (1/31).
2003: 6 Dates
2004: 7 Dates
2005: 8 Dates
2006: 9 Dates
2007; 10 Dates
2008: 11 Dates
2009: 11 Dates (2040 - 2009 = 31 and because 2009 was not a leap year, there was no 2/29, so again no possible date in February)
2010: 12 Dates
Then each year will have again 12 possible dates, until 2027. So after 2010 there are 27 x 12 = 324 more possible dates.
2040 - 2028 = 12, so from this year on we will loose a date each year, because 12/0 does not exsist.
2028: 11 Dates
2029: 10 Dates
2030: 9 Dates
2031: 8 Dates
2032: 7 Dates
2033: 6 Dates
2034: 5 Dates
2035: 4 Dates
2036: 3 Dates
2037: 2 Dates
2038 1 Date (1/1/2038 as last possible date)
That means that in total there are 480 possible dates between October 15, 1997 and January 1, 2038. In total there are 14,688 days between those 2 dates <!-- m -->http://www.timeanddate.com/date/duratio ... =1&y2=2038<!-- m -->, so the chance that Mike would coincidentially die on a date that would make 2040 is 480/14,688
This means that the chance that both Elvis & MJ would die on a date that made the year referred to on their concert intro, would be 204/7,859 x 480/14,688 = 97,920/115,432,992
Conclusion: I did not win the $999, because the chance that all the above were merely coincidences, is astronomical little:
Chance of a: 1/720
Chance of b: 7/699
Chance of c: 1/10
Chance of d: 1/70308
Chance of e: 2/251
Chance of f: 2/75
Chance of g: 1/216
Chance of h: 1/600
Chance of i: 1/9000
Chance of j: 1/81
Chance of k: 1/127106684000000000000000 (forget about this one for a second)
Chance of l: 97920/115432992
1/720 x 7/699 x 1/9 x 1/70308 x 2/251 x 2/75 x 1/216 x 1/600 x 1/9000 x 3/81 x 97920/115432992 =
8225280/65381426700000000000000000000000000 or in other words a chance of
0,000000000000000000000000000125804535% (<!-- m -->http://www.google.nl/search?hl=nl&q=822 ... =&gs_rfai=<!-- m -->)
IF we also take point k into account, the chance would be even smaller:
8225280/65381426700000000000000000000000000 x 1/127106684000000000000000 =
8225280/8310416340000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
So actually the chance that all the above was just a coincidence is
0,00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000989755466%
That's 1 in a gaziliabilionzilliontrillion.
I know I didn't calculate parts the exact way it should, but as you can see I always tried to make the possibility as likely as possible.
"For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places."
Comments
<!-- s:shock: -->:shock:<!-- s:shock: --> Good work girl!
Darn, no $999, so no wild night in Amsterdam for us <!-- s
I never laughed so hard in my life!
Thank you for doing this Souza!
I can't wait to hear the first person to say, "all that aside, I think MJ is dead."
ROTFL!!!!!
MAYBE MJ REALLY NEED SOMETHING TO SLEEP AFTER PLANNING THIS HOAX <!-- s
@souza do you want your jacket with dots? <!-- s
This should be 1/9, because it can't possibly reduce to 0. The chance will therefore be a little bigger than my final conclusion:
1/720 x 7/699 x 1/9 x 1/70308 x 2/251 x 2/75 x 1/216 x 1/600 x 1/9000 x 1/81 x 97920/115432992 = 2741760/65381426700000000000000000000000000 x 1/127106684000000000000000 (point k) = 2741760/8310416340000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
The chance should be:
0,000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000329918489%
so the chance just increased with
0,00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000003,2991849%!!!
Still not close to one in a million though <!-- s
(I edited the original post as well)
"For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places."HAHAHA! <!-- s
Aww what a pity... 1 hour waterfietsen in the canals can be fun <!-- s
Indeed good work Souza!
Peace and Love
That should be 2/76, 9/9 must be added as well of course. So the cance will change a little, but I don't feel like calculating anymore, hahahaha! You get the point. Maybe it will annoy me enough tomorrow to change it.
Edit: never mind, it is correct. The date needs to be before 9/9 of course... I need sleep <!-- s
"For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places."a2 + b2 = c2 <!-- s
I think he drowned in a bathtub.
"For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places."(Takes hat off)
Big applause for the hard work! My tired brain can't read the contents right now though, bed is calling...but will read it all tomorrow. Will be good to refresh whatever memories of maths' probability remain in my un-mathematical brain from high school days <!-- s:D -->:D<!-- s:D -->
All I can say is WOW!!!!! You are amazing!!!!!!
I'm off to the marijuana...ummmm...thread <!-- s:D -->:D<!-- s:D -->
With L.O.V.E. always.
You are so lovely, souza! This is so wonderful! You made my day! <!-- s
I LOVE YOU ALL & GOD BLESS:)
You said you were going to help me with cleaning up the house and decorating the walls!
I am the accountant here, so stop the calculating right away!
[youtube:vnkk485i]
This is all killing me. <!-- s
I fixed another error, I had a good night sleep and I see I made some stupid mistakes. So the chance is getting more likely, but I don't think it will ever come close to 1 in a million <!-- s
[youtube:2m2z5clh]
"For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places."I was going dizzy trying to digest all the calculations LOL. (oh btw i never knew 'y' was a vowel??) TS, since it's practically impossible for anyone to claim that $999, wouldn't it be a good idea to donate it to charity instead? <!-- s;) -->;)<!-- s;) -->